As a person fascinated by online post-apocalyptic fiction, I fantasise about life after the end of all things a fair amount. As I wander down the street, I sometimes catch myself thinking, ‘What would I be doing if this was all ruined?’ To be fair, I’m the type of narcissistic arsehole who believes he’d survive such an event and would probably become a badass Waste wanderer, but it’s worth thinking about regardless.
But what is the actual, real-life possibility that someone with a big red button will throw a clump of soggy shit at a spinning fan?
The current state of nuclear arms
When you look at the nuclear numbers, you realise just how bloody pants-wettingly frightening countries are. It’s easy to think that nations don’t need many nukes, because really, how many would it take to utterly obliterate your opponent? Well, around the world, there’s a buttload more than you might realise.
First, context. In 1991, the United Nations released a statistical report of international nuclear arms. The US alone had 2,450 warheads to load onto its intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICMBs) – these ranged from a power of 1-355 kilotons (for reference, Hiroshima was about 12.5 kt). That’s not including MX missiles, which were at the time about 500 kt, with a range of 11,000 kilometres.
The report states that the then-Soviet Union had 6,450 warheads, also for ICBMs. The UK, France and China were all on that list, too.
In 2016, the numbers are only higher. The International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (iCAN) states that the US and Russia have a combined 14,270 warheads between them. France, China and the UK are also on the list, but Pakistan, India, Israel and North Korea have all also joined in. OH GOD.
#Trump will ‘never, ever’ rule out nuclear strike against #Daesh https://t.co/PB76HTlQwE #nuclearweapons pic.twitter.com/wz03h3cDzK
— Sputnik (@SputnikInt) April 28, 2016
Is someone going to hit the button?
There has been a lot of talk in the news recently of North Korea’s nuclear power. Though the New York Times stated at the end of April that the secretive country’s most recent missile tests failed, it’s obviously still a major concern if anyone is trying to build bombs – failing or otherwise.
A super interesting report was released in November 2015 from the Project for the Study of the 21st Century (PS21). It surveyed 50 experts from around the globe for their opinion on the rising risk of nuclear warfare. The results did not, shall we say, bode well.
Apparently, 60 per cent of respondents reckon the risk of us blowing each other to hell has increased in the past decade. This coupled with the prediction of us having a 6.8 per cent of descending into nuclear war within the next 25 years. The most likely combatants seemed to be Pakistan-India, Russia-NATO, North Korea-US and Iran-Its enemies (US, Israel or the Gulf).
“The survey accurately captures the Zeitgeist of renewed concern about the potential for great power conflict. While the prospect for major war is considered to be less than 50-50 over the next two decades, there is a significant chance of it happening,” said Director of the Nonproliferation and Disarmament Programme (International Institute for Strategic Studies) Mark Fitzpatrick in the report’s press release.
So … are we screwed? Probably not, looking at the numbers. But so long as nuclear weapons exist, the chances of war will remain. At least it gives us post-apocalyptic fiction writers something to do?
(Lastly, check out this hilarious Tweet below that sums this whole thing up nicely)
And this is why we need to keep an eye on the daffodil menace! #daffodil #nuclearweapons pic.twitter.com/aFsT97N2lI
— Fluffy T Bear (@DaffodilMallet) April 28, 2016